Educational analysis only - not financial advice. Trading CFDs involves a high risk of loss. Market data as of 10 August 2026, 10:00am GMT+8.
Weekly Market Overview
After last week's shock - the US economy actually lost jobs in July - this week tests whether the dollar's slide continues. The RBA decides Tuesday, US CPI lands Wednesday, and UK GDP plus US retail sales round out the week. Our focus: gold (XAU/USD), AUD/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD. Beginner tip: inflation data now outweighs everything else.
Tuesday, Aug 11 - AUD/USD: RBA Rate Decision
The Aussie leads the week: the RBA announces its Cash Rate decision Tuesday, August 11 at 12:30pm GMT+8, with Governor Bullock's press conference at 1:30pm GMT+8. All 37 economists in the latest poll expect a hold at 4.35% after June-quarter inflation cooled to 3.8%, so the statement's tone - hike warning kept or softened - is what matters most. AUD/USD enters near 0.7068 after Friday's weak US jobs report knocked the dollar to a seven-week low.
· Trend: bullish; the pair cleared its 100-day average around 0.7050 after failing there before the US jobs data
· Resistance: 0.7090 recent highs (R1), then 0.7100 (R2) and 0.7150 (R3)
· Support: 0.7050, the 100-day average (S1), then 0.7000 (S2) and 0.6950 (S3)
· Levels to watch: a hawkish hold could bring 0.7090 into play, then 0.7100 and 0.7150; a dovish tone risks a slip toward 0.7000
Beginner tip: central bank days move markets twice - on the decision, then again at the press conference an hour later - so never assume the first move is final.
Wednesday, Aug 12 - Gold (XAU/USD): US CPI Inflation Data
Gold enters CPI week near 4,325 after its best week since January: Friday's shock jobs report - the US lost 23,000 jobs versus roughly 83,000 expected - sank the dollar and lifted gold toward 4,370. Wednesday, August 12 at 8:30pm GMT+8 brings US CPI and Core CPI together. With rate-hike bets fading fast, a soft inflation print could extend the rally, while a hot one would revive the Fed story and test the breakout.
· Trend: bullish; up about 8% in a month and holding above the old 4,240-4,290 breakout area
· Resistance: 4,370, Friday's spike high (R1), then 4,400 (R2) and 4,480 (R3)
· Support: 4,290 (S1), then 4,240 former resistance (S2) and 4,112 (S3)
· Levels to watch: a soft CPI could bring 4,370 into play, then 4,400 and 4,480; a hot print risks a slide toward 4,240
Beginner tip: CPI hits gold through interest-rate expectations - compare Core CPI with last month's pace, not just the headline number.
Wednesday, Aug 12 - USD/JPY: US CPI & Intervention Watch
USD/JPY has crept back above 158 - near 158.15 - as markets test Tokyo's resolve after the joint US-Japan intervention, which totalled about ¥13.78 trillion across two days. Even Friday's weak US jobs report could not keep the pair down, a sign wide rate differentials and Japan's import costs still dominate. Wednesday's US CPI at 8:30pm GMT+8 is the key test, and talk that the BoJ could raise rates in September adds two-sided risk.
· Trend: rebounding inside a broad 156-160 consolidation after the intervention plunge
· Resistance: 158.50 (R1), then 159.30 (R2) and 160.20 (R3) across the recovery zone
· Support: 156.00 (S1), then 155.00 post-intervention lows (S2) and 154.00 (S3)
· Levels to watch: a hot CPI could bring 158.50 into play, then 159.30 and 160.20 - but intervention risk rises at each step
Beginner tip: pairs recovering after intervention can reverse violently on one headline - keep positions small and avoid holding through Wednesday's CPI.
Thursday, Aug 13 - GBP/USD: UK GDP & US Producer Prices
Cable faces a double test Thursday, August 13: UK monthly and preliminary quarterly GDP at 2:00pm GMT+8, then US PPI and jobless claims together at 8:30pm GMT+8. The pound enters near 1.3491, about a one-month high, knocking on the 1.3500 ceiling that has capped a 15-month range. Solid UK growth plus another soft US print could finally force a breakout, while weak GDP would send the pair back into the range.
· Trend: neutral-to-bullish inside the long 1.3400-1.3500 range, pressing the top
· Resistance: 1.3500 range ceiling (R1), then 1.3550 (R2) and 1.3600 (R3)
· Support: 1.3400 range floor (S1), then 1.3350 (S2) and 1.3300 (S3)
· Levels to watch: a confirmed 1.3500 break could bring 1.3550 into play, then 1.3600 and 1.3650 on a broader dollar slide
Beginner tip: long-standing range edges attract false breakouts - wait for a clear close beyond 1.3500 rather than chasing the first spike through it.
Other Data to Note
Beyond the four pairs, New Zealand's inflation expectations arrive Thursday at 11:00am GMT+8, worth a glance for NZD after last week's mixed jobs data. Thursday evening brings US PPI, Core PPI, and weekly jobless claims together at 8:30pm GMT+8 - producer prices often preview CPI trends. Friday closes with US Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales at 8:30pm GMT+8, then preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations at 10:00pm GMT+8. After July's payrolls shock, any weak US consumer number will feed the falling-dollar story.
Key Takeaway
This week is about confirmation: Friday's report that the US lost 23,000 jobs cracked the dollar, and Wednesday's CPI decides whether that crack widens. The RBA's tone on Tuesday sets the Aussie's path, while the pound watches Thursday's UK GDP with the 1.3500 ceiling in sight. Beginners should remember that inflation releases move markets through interest-rate expectations - a soft CPI now would hurt the dollar more than the jobs miss did, while a hot print could reverse the whole move. Trade smaller around Wednesday night's release, when spreads widen sharply. Sub-IBs and partners are welcome to share this weekly outlook with their own clients as educational market content. Follow Lirunex for more weekly market updates and educational insights.
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This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Market data comes from third-party sources believed reliable but is not guaranteed and may change without notice. Trading forex, gold, and CFDs carries a high level of risk; you could lose some or all of your capital, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Lirunex Limited accepts no liability for losses arising from reliance on this material, is regulated by the Labuan FSA (MB/20/0050) and the FSC Mauritius (GB24203882), and does not direct this material at any jurisdiction where its distribution would be unlawful.
