Educational analysis only, not financial advice. Trading CFDs involves a high risk of loss. Market data as of 4 September 2026, 11:33am GMT+8.

Market Recap Overview

Last week we flagged one release, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, as the catalyst to watch across four instruments. Tuesday it landed at 54.6%, below the 55.2% forecast and down from July's 55.6%, still the eighth straight month of expansion, just a slower one. A bigger story overshadowed it the same day: fresh US-Iran strikes and a hawkish Fed tone drove the real price action. Here is how gold, EUR/USD, US500 and WTI actually reacted, and how each one carried through the rest of the week to Friday.

Gold Dips on the Miss, Fed Tone Takes Over

·       Before: we flagged 4,520 and 4,675 as resistance, 4,379, 4,310 and 4,270 as support, with gold near 4,435 heading into the release, already lower on the week.

·       Result: August PMI printed 54.6%, below the 55.2% forecast and down from July's 55.6%, though a hawkish Fed tone and a yield spike dominated the reaction, not the soft print.

·       After: gold sold off hard through Tuesday night, a session low near 4,374.54 (-1.6%), then spent Wednesday and Thursday grinding back up as the yield spike faded, climbing to 4,475 by Friday, 11:33am GMT+8.

·       Level check: 4,379 was tested and briefly pierced Tuesday, then held for the rest of the week; Friday's push has 4,520 back in play as the level to watch.

Chart discussion: the PMI miss argued for a bounce, but the yield spike and rate-hike bets won out, showing how a broken support can still hold as a floor once the bigger driver fades.

Mentor tip: a fast spike right at the news minute often retraces once the initial reaction fades, the candle 30 to 60 minutes later usually tells you more about the real trend.

EUR/USD Slides on Dollar Strength, Not the PMI

·       Before: we flagged 1.1615, 1.1670 and 1.1715 as resistance, 1.1565 as support, with the pair near 1.1608, already below its former support heading into the release.

·       Result: the soft PMI print did little for the pair, a hawkish Fed tone and broad dollar strength kept driving EUR/USD lower regardless.

·       After: the pair extended its slide through Wednesday and Thursday, testing two-week lows, then climbed steadily into Friday to 1.1626 by 11:33am GMT+8.

·       Level check: 1.1615 capped the pair for two sessions before giving way Friday morning; it now trades just above, the level to watch for whether it holds as new support.

Chart discussion: EUR/USD never got a chance to test its resistance levels, the dollar side of the story overpowered the PMI miss and kept price grinding toward 1.1565 instead.

Mentor tip: a break and hold means price closes above or below a level on more than one candle, not just a brief touch during the news spike, that is what separates a real breakout from a false one.

US500 Holds 7,620 Despite the Iran Headlines

·       Before: we flagged 7,817 (the Aug 13 record) as resistance, 7,620 and 7,560 as support, with the index near 7,686 heading into the release.

·       Result: the softer PMI added to growth-slowdown concerns on a day already dominated by the Iran headlines and a jump in Treasury yields.

·       After: the index closed Tuesday at 7,631.47, down 0.7%, then rebuilt steadily through Wednesday and Thursday to 7,748 by Friday, 11:33am GMT+8.

·       Level check: 7,620 held on Tuesday's close, a narrow save; the week's climb has the index back within range of the 7,817 record.

Chart discussion: a soft PMI plus a risk-off news day is a tough combination for equities, the index gave up Friday's level but the 7,620 support did its job on the close.

Mentor tip: a daily close below support matters more than a brief dip during the day, candles that dip and recover by the close often mean the level is still holding.

WTI Breaks Out on Iran, PMI Barely Registers

·       Before: we flagged 88.50 and 92.40 as resistance, 85.00 and 80.30 as support, with WTI near 87.25, already above its former resistance heading into the release.

·       Result: the PMI barely registered, fresh US strikes on Iranian sites and two tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz drove the entire move instead.

·       After: WTI rallied about 4.5% on Tuesday toward 90, eased back toward 89 through Wednesday and Thursday, then pushed to a fresh week high of 92.47 by Friday, 11:33am GMT+8.

·       Level check: 88.50 broke clean Tuesday and has held as support on every pullback since; 92.40 gave way Friday, with WTI trading just above it.

Chart discussion: a geopolitical headline can swamp a data print entirely, WTI's breakout through 88.50 and hold above it on the pullback is the clearest level story of the four.

Mentor tip: support and resistance are not exact lines, price often wicks slightly through a level before reversing, so watch the general zone, not one precise number.

What's Next

The bigger mover this week was not the PMI at all: fresh US-Iran strikes and two oil tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz drove WTI, and a hawkish Fed tone drove the dollar side of gold and EUR/USD. ISM Services PMI (Thursday) and the August jobs report (Friday) are still ahead as this recap goes out, worth watching for a similar gap between the data and the headline story.

Key Takeaway

This week showed how a bigger story, a hawkish Fed and Middle East tensions, can swamp a scheduled release. All four instruments shared the same pattern: a sharp Tuesday reaction, then a steadier grind back toward the levels we flagged. Write down your levels before the news, then check what held. Sub-IBs and partners are welcome to share this recap as educational content. Follow Lirunex for more weekly market updates and educational insights.

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