Educational analysis only, not financial advice. Trading CFDs involves a high risk of loss. Market data as of 15 September 2026, 11:00am GMT+8.
Weekly Overview
Here's what happened last week, and what's ahead this week:
· Europe's central bank raised rates by 0.25% to 2.50% as expected, but a hotter US inflation report mattered more, pushing US rate hike odds from 70% to 87% and pulling the euro, gold and US stocks down.
· Those odds have since eased to 78% by Tuesday, still likely but less certain.
· This week's real story is three central bank decisions: the Fed early Thursday GMT+8, then the BoE and BoJ within a day.
· Gold, EUR/USD and US500 depend on the Fed; GBP/JPY depends on both the BoE and the BoJ.
Gold (XAU/USD), Thursday, Sep 17, US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Fed decides on rates at 2:00am GMT+8 Thursday, with hike odds easing to 78% today from Monday's 87% peak. Gold dipped briefly below last week's 4,300 support before recovering back above it, landing hours before the Bank of England and Bank of Japan also announce.
· Trend: gold trades near $4,314.50 (TradingView, 15 Sep 2026), back above its 4,300 support after an earlier intraday dip.
· Resistance: 4,383, then 4,414 and 4,472.
· Support: 4,300, then 4,241 and 4,118.
· Watch: whether gold holds above 4,300 into Thursday's decision, or slips back below it if hike odds firm up again.
Chart discussion: gold has reacted more to the Fed's rate-hike odds than any single headline this month, watch whether the 4,300 level holds as support again or gives way for a second time.
Mentor tip: a widely expected hike can still hit gold hard if the statement signals more hikes to come, the follow-through often matters more than the headline move.
EUR/USD, Thursday, Sep 17, US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The same Fed decision lands for EUR/USD at 2:00am GMT+8 Thursday. With no ECB meeting this week, EUR/USD trades as a pure dollar story into the announcement, and it has already broken down hard, the Fed's tone on further hikes likely matters more than the size of any move.
· Trend: EUR/USD trades near 1.15406 (TradingView, 15 Sep 2026), its lowest since mid-August, down 0.49% today.
· Resistance: 1.1585, a broken support now overhead, then 1.1650 and 1.1700.
· Support: 1.1520, then 1.1500 and 1.1400.
· Watch: a broad dollar move from the Fed decision, EUR/USD has no scheduled Eurozone news of its own this week.
Chart discussion: without a Eurozone catalyst of its own, EUR/USD often just mirrors the dollar's Fed day reaction, watch whether the breakdown extends toward 1.1500 or finds footing first.
Mentor tip: a pair with no scheduled news of its own is not necessarily quiet, it can still move hard on someone else's headline.
US500, Thursday, Sep 17, US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
US500 faces the same 2:00am GMT+8 Thursday decision, holding well off its August record with Fed hike odds easing to 78% today from Monday's 87% peak. Equities have tended to prefer a hike paired with a dovish forward path over no hike at all with a hawkish one.
· Trend: US500 trades near 7,619.97 (TradingView, 15 Sep 2026), down 0.58% today, about 197 points below its record of 7,816.70.
· Resistance: 7,700, then 7,760 and 7,817, the record high.
· Support: 7,600, then 7,550 and 7,420.
· Watch: whether the index treats a hike as already priced in, or as a fresh reason to pull back further from the record.
Chart discussion: an index still well below a recent record often needs a clean catalyst to turn back higher, a dovish statement could spark a push toward 7,700, a hawkish one could send it back toward support.
Mentor tip: watch the statement and press conference together, the first move right after the statement sometimes reverses once the press conference tone becomes clear.
GBP/JPY, Thursday, Sep 17, Bank of England Rate Decision
The Bank of England announces its rate decision at 7:00pm GMT+8 Thursday, then the Bank of Japan follows Friday, timing still tentative. UK Claimant Count lands today (Tuesday) and CPI y/y Wednesday, both at 2:00pm GMT+8, building into the BoE vote. GBP/JPY has already fallen sharply from above 216.
· Trend: GBP/JPY trades near 208.79 (TradingView, 15 Sep 2026), up slightly today but still well down from above 216 in early September.
· Resistance: 210, then 213 and 216.
· Support: 207.6, then 207 and 205.
· Watch: Wednesday's UK CPI can shift BoE odds before Thursday even arrives, then Friday's BoJ outcome could partly undo Thursday's BoE reaction.
Chart discussion: a pair driven by two separate central banks in one week often sees its Thursday move partly retraced once the second bank speaks, watch whether GBP/JPY is still trending the same way by Friday afternoon.
Mentor tip: when a pair depends on two different central banks, treat the first reaction as provisional, wait for the second catalyst before judging the real direction.
Key Takeaway
This week's other data and the real takeaway:
· Canada's CPI (Monday, 8:30pm GMT+8) and New Zealand's GDP (Thursday, 6:45am GMT+8) add to the calendar; post-decision commentary can move price too.
· The Fed leads Thursday, then the BoE and BoJ follow within a day.
· Gold, EUR/USD and US500 hinge on the Fed's tone; GBP/JPY carries both catalysts.
Explore Lirunex's Week Ahead article to understand why this week's Fed, BoE and BoJ decisions matter, then apply these levels with a clear trading mindset.
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