Educational analysis only, not financial advice. Trading CFDs involves a high risk of loss. Market data as of 18 August 2026, 4:55pm GMT+8.
Market Recap Overview
Two of this week's biggest news releases are now behind us: Canada's inflation came in higher than expected on Monday night, and UK jobless claims fell this afternoon when a rise was expected. This forex market recap shows how each market traded before and after the news, measured against the key levels from our Monday outlook. Beginner tip: reactions, not headlines, tell the story.
Monday, Aug 17, 8:30pm GMT+8 · Canada CPI: Higher Inflation, Calm Reaction
The setup: USD/CAD was already falling before the news. It broke below the 1.4000 floor the week before, slipped under 1.3900 on Monday morning, and sat near 1.3875 just before the release. The result: July CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year against the 2.9% expected, keeping expectations of another Bank of Canada rate rise alive. The pair moved down toward 1.3850 support in the first hour, then steadied. By late Tuesday afternoon it trades near 1.3870, with the week's low so far at 1.3852: the support tested, and holding.
· Before: 1.3875, drifting lower all Monday as traders prepared for a firm number
· Result: CPI 3.0% y/y versus 2.9% expected, slightly above forecasts
· After: a dip to 1.3852, right on the 1.3850 (S2) level, then settling near 1.3870, still below the broken 1.3900 (S1)
· Level check: this is the path our Monday outlook described for a strong CPI; 1.3850 (S2) held its first test, and 1.3900 is now the ceiling to watch, then 1.4000
Chart discussion: a wick is the thin line above or below a candle body. If candles keep failing at the broken 1.3900 floor and leave long upper wicks, price often turns back down to test 1.3850 again; a firm close above 1.3900 would hint the fall is slowing.
Beginner tip: when a currency has already moved before its news, even a strong number can cause only a small reaction: much of the surprise was already priced in.
Tuesday, Aug 18, 2:00pm GMT+8 · UK Claimant Count: Claims Fall, Breakout Holds
The setup: GBP/USD came into today's release holding its biggest technical move in over a year: Monday's break above the 1.3500 ceiling of a 15-month range. It touched 1.3550 on Monday, drifted back overnight, and traded near 1.3538 before the data. The result was a positive surprise: claims fell by 11,000 when a rise of 11,200 was expected. In the first hour the pair eased to the 1.3529 area, keeping the breakout intact, and it still trades near 1.3530 late Tuesday; tomorrow's UK CPI at 2:00pm GMT+8 is the bigger test.
· Before: 1.3538, holding above the broken 1.3500 ceiling (R1)
· Result: claimant count fell 11.0K versus an expected 11.2K rise, a firm labour market signal
· After: easing to 1.3529 within the first hour, still above 1.3500 and under the 1.3550 (R2) cap
· Level check: the 1.3500 break has survived its first data test; 1.3550 remains the door to 1.3600
Chart discussion: good news does not always lift price at once; today's small dip mostly reflects short-term selling. If rejection wicks keep appearing at 1.3550, price often returns to test 1.3500; as long as that former ceiling holds as support, the breakout stays intact. The left arrow marks the weekly open (Monday 5:00am GMT+8) near 1.3530: price sits almost exactly back on it, and a week holding above its own open usually keeps a constructive tone.
Beginner tip: labour data rarely settles a breakout on its own; inflation usually does. Treat today as a passed checkpoint and Wednesday's CPI as the exam.
What's Next This Week
The calendar stays busy from here: Australia's Wage Price Index lands tomorrow, Wednesday, at 9:30am GMT+8, followed by UK CPI at 2:00pm GMT+8, the week's biggest sterling event. The Fed's July meeting minutes arrive Thursday at 2:00am GMT+8, with the PBoC rate decision at 9:15am and Australian jobs at 9:30am GMT+8 close behind. Friday closes with UK and Canadian retail sales and the global flash PMIs. Gold continues to hold above its 4,370 support, and the euro sits near its two-month high while waiting for the US side of those releases.
Key Takeaway
Two events, two simple lessons. Canada showed how a market that has already moved can absorb a strong number: USD/CAD had been falling for a week, so a 3.0% CPI produced a dip to 1.3850 rather than a plunge, and that level held, exactly as our Monday map suggested. The UK showed a breakout passing its first checkpoint: falling claims kept GBP/USD above 1.3500, but the decisive test is Wednesday's inflation report. The middle of the week now belongs to Australia's wages, UK CPI and the Fed minutes. Sub-IBs and partners are welcome to share this recap with their own clients as educational market content. Follow Lirunex for more weekly market updates and educational insights.
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Risk Disclaimer: This market recap is educational content only, not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Market data comes from third-party sources and is not guaranteed and may change without notice. Trading forex, gold, and CFDs involves a high level of risk: you could lose some or all of your capital, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Lirunex Limited accepts no liability for losses arising from reliance on this material, is regulated by the Labuan FSA (MB/20/0050) and the FSC Mauritius (GB24203882), and does not direct this material at any jurisdiction where its distribution would be unlawful.
