BOE Rate Decision and NFP
The Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England both announce rate decisions this week, with US congressional elections on Tuesday and US and Canadian jobs data on Friday night.
The Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England both announce rate decisions this week, with US congressional elections on Tuesday and US and Canadian jobs data on Friday night.
The Fed decides tonight with a hold priced near 93%, the ECB and Bank of Japan follow within 36 hours, and this preview sets the levels for gold, EUR/USD, US500 and WTI.
US500 enters the first full week of the Q3 reporting season at 7,706 after its worst week since June and a chip-led Monday rebound, with 84% of early reporters beating and profit growth near 30%. This outlook sets out the Netflix, Meta and Tesla numbers the market is pricing, the flash PMIs and the Fed blackout, how to read the weekly and one-hour direction of US500, EUR/USD, gold and WTI, and the levels to watch.
September US CPI lands on Wednesday 14 October at 8:30pm GMT+8 with the 10-year yield near a 24-year high, EUR/USD at a 17-month low, gold rebounding from 4,066 and Brent above $100. This preview sets out the consensus, the hot, in-line and soft scenarios for the October Fed meeting, how to read the direction each market is already in, and the levels to watch on EUR/USD, gold, US500 and WTI before CPI, PPI, retail sales and the first bank earnings.
EUR/USD fell to 1.1310, its lowest since May 2025, and gold\'s softer-PCE bounce was sold as US 10-year yields closed at a record 5.29% despite softer inflation, while WTI gave back its Hormuz spike and US500 holds a 7,655 to 7,745 range. ISM tonight and the nonfarm payrolls September 2026 report on Friday now decide the week for all four.
Treasury yields today pushed the US 10 year above 5.2% and the 30 year to its highest since 2004, Trump rejected Iran\'s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the RBA\'s fourth rate hike failed to lift the Australian Dollar off nine week lows.
Xi Jinping arrived in Washington for a summit with Donald Trump as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed an extended US and China trade truce through January 10, while Iran\'s president used his UN address to hold firm on the Strait of Hormuz and stronger US data revived bets on another Fed rate hike.
Ukraine\'s largest drone strike of the war hit a Moscow oil refinery, the US and Denmark signed off on a new Greenland security deal, and Iran\'s president arrived in New York for UN talks, as traders weigh what these geopolitical events could mean for gold, forex, oil and indices today.
Brent crude slipped to around 103 dollars a barrel on Friday 18 September and gold climbed to a one week high near 4,380 dollars, after the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed and Saudi Aramco moved to restart its East West pipeline.
Gold slipped and EUR/USD broke down sharply after last week\'s hot US CPI print, while US500 held well off its August record and GBP/JPY tumbled on rising Bank of Japan rate hike bets.