By Anne Sinclair | Financial Markets Content & Communications Strategist
Nonfarm Payrolls September 2026 | Weekly Market Analysis for EUR/USD, Gold, US500 and WTI (Sep 28 to Oct 2)
Weekly Overview
The nonfarm payrolls September 2026 report closes a week the US dollar has controlled from the open, with all four featured instruments reacting to it.
Last week the US 10-year yield closed at 5.184% on 25 September, its highest since 2007, as markets priced a roughly 68% chance of another Fed hike in October after the 16 September increase covered in Lirunex's Weekly Analysis for the Fed, BoE and BoJ week. EUR/USD fell for a third week to 1.1360, gold closed at $4,289.70, US500 rose 1.21% on Meta and Microsoft AI news, and WTI swung between 92.4 and 100.3 on Hormuz headlines before easing on the US and China trade truce extension covered in Lirunex's Trump and Xi summit market impact piece.
This week changed on Monday. President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal, WTI spiked, gold dropped 4% to a seven-week low, and the 10-year yield moved back above 5.2% while the 30-year set a 22-year high at 5.58%, covered in Lirunex's Treasury yields at multi-decade highs report.
Tuesday and Wednesday pulled the other way, but only in part. Recovering Gulf exports sent WTI back below its Monday starting point. Wednesday's PCE came in softer than expected and October hike odds fell to about 38% from 51%, yet the 10-year still closed at a new high of 5.29%, so the dollar kept its grip: EUR/USD printed 1.1310, its lowest since May 2025, and gold's bounce to 4,215 faded within hours. ADP's +90,000 beat and Micron's record quarter are holding US500 in its range. Only nonfarm payrolls September 2026 is left, and all four instruments are exposed to it.
Sources: Lirunex: Weekly Analysis, Fed, BoE and BoJ, Sep 14 to 18 | Federal Reserve: FOMC Statement, 16 September 2026 | Lirunex: Trump and Xi Summit Market Impact on Gold, Forex and Oil | Portfolio Terminal: Stock Market Week in Review, 25 September 2026 | Kitco News: Gold Caps Weekly Loss, 25 September 2026 | FXStreet: WTI Oil Extends Gains as Trump Rejects Hormuz Plan | Lirunex: Treasury Yields Today Surge to Multi Decade Highs | Yahoo Finance: US Core PCE Inflation Rises 0.2% in August, Below Forecast | Fox Business: Private Sector Added 90,000 Jobs in September, ADP Says | TheStreet: Stock Market Today, 30 September 2026
Nonfarm Payrolls September 2026 and US PCE: What to Watch
Three US releases sit at the centre of this US PCE and nonfarm payrolls week: inflation came first on Wednesday, activity comes tonight, nonfarm payrolls September 2026 last. The full calendar is in Lirunex's Week Ahead economic calendar for 28 September to 2 October.
US PCE Inflation, Wednesday 30 September, 8:30pm GMT+8 (released)
The PCE price index is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. August printed +0.3% month on month headline and +0.2% core against consensus of +0.4% and +0.3%, with annual rates of 3.4% and 3.0% versus 3.7% and 3.3% expected.
Why it mattered: October hike odds dropped to about 38% from 51% within hours, gold jumped to 4,215 and EUR/USD reached 1.1375. Neither move held, because the 10-year still closed at 5.29% and the 30-year at 5.64%. Softer inflation lowered hike odds but not long-term yields, keeping the dollar supported into nonfarm payrolls September 2026.
ISM Manufacturing PMI, Thursday 1 October, 10:00pm GMT+8
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is released tonight at 10:00am US Eastern, 10:00pm GMT+8. After consumer sentiment fell to 48.1 from 51.7, markets are watching whether activity is cooling too. US500 reacts most directly; the dollar and gold follow the shift in rate expectations.
Nonfarm Payrolls September 2026 Report, Friday 2 October, 8:30pm GMT+8
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September Employment Situation report on Friday 2 October at 8:30am US Eastern, 8:30pm GMT+8. August showed +162,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.1% and earnings +0.3%. Consensus is near +84,000 after Wednesday's ADP beat of +90,000 against 70,000 expected; Barclays, cited in Kiplinger's preview, expects +50,000.
This is the week's biggest event for all four instruments. A strong number could revive the October hike and extend the dollar's run, pressuring EUR/USD and gold; a weak number is the release most likely to give the euro and gold a bounce.
Release schedule at a glance (GMT+8)
| Day (GMT+8) | Time | Release | Prior / Consensus | Most exposed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 29 Sep | 10:00 PM | JOLTS job openings, Conference Board consumer confidence | Not stated in source | US500, USD |
| Wed 30 Sep | 8:15 PM | ADP private payrolls (Sep) | Actual +90k (consensus +70k) | USD, EUR/USD |
| Wed 30 Sep | 8:30 PM | PCE and Core PCE (Aug), Q2 GDP final | Actual +0.3% / +0.2% MoM, 3.4% / 3.0% YoY (consensus +0.4% / +0.3%) | Gold, EUR/USD, USD |
| Wed 30 Sep | 10:30 PM | EIA weekly crude inventories | Not stated in source | WTI |
| Thu 1 Oct | 4:30 AM | Micron earnings (after US close) | Not stated in source | US500 |
| Thu 1 Oct | 8:30 PM | Initial jobless claims | Not stated in source | USD |
| Thu 1 Oct | 10:00 PM | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | Not stated in source | US500, USD |
| Fri 2 Oct | 8:30 PM | Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, earnings (Sep) | Prior +162k, 4.1%, +0.3% MoM; consensus about +84k, Barclays +50k | All four |
Markets That May React
Each instrument below carries a live catalyst this week. Levels were confirmed against the 1-hour TradingView charts captured at 11:34am GMT+8 on 1 October and shown on each card.
Forex: EUR/USD Into Nonfarm Payrolls September 2026
EUR/USD broke the 1.1360 area it last visited in late July and printed 1.1310 on Wednesday, its lowest since May 2025, as record US yields and Strait of Hormuz tension lifted the dollar. The softer PCE lifted the pair to 1.1375 for a few hours. ECB President Christine Lagarde now argues high bond yields will slow the economy on their own, which reads as dovish and has not offset the dollar's yield advantage. The pair trades as a dollar story into Friday's payrolls.
Price action: the pair has stepped down since 16 September, with the sharpest leg on the 17 September Fed decision, and every bounce has stalled below the previous high. The 24 to 29 September consolidation between 1.1360 and 1.1400 resolved lower on Wednesday: price broke to 1.1310, bounced to 1.1375 on the PCE print, and has returned to 1.1323, within 15 pips of the low. If 1.1310 holds on this second visit the pair may build a base above it; if it gives way, the next chart support is 1.1250. The band is 1.1310 to 1.1375 into nonfarm payrolls September 2026.
· Trend: EUR/USD trades at 1.1323 (TradingView, 1 October 2026, 11:40am GMT+8), just above Wednesday's 1.1310 low, the lowest since May 2025.
· Resistance: 1.1375, then 1.1410 and 1.1495.
· Support: 1.1310, then 1.1250 and 1.1200.
· Watch: a strong payrolls print may press 1.1310; a soft nonfarm payrolls September 2026 number is the release that could lift the euro back above 1.1375.
Chart discussion: traders may monitor whether hourly closes hold above 1.1310 into nonfarm payrolls September 2026, or whether the retest fails first.
Mentor tip: three down weeks do not make a level safe to fade; the trend is over only when price proves it.
Sources: Trading Economics: Euro Area Currency News | FXStreet: EUR/USD Weekly Forecast, 25 September 2026 | RoboForex: EUR/USD Forecast for 28 September to 2 October 2026 | FXStreet: Euro Weakens Below 1.1350 on Higher US Treasury Yields, Lagarde's Dovish Tilt
Gold (XAU/USD): Seven-Week Low Into the Inflation and Jobs Data
Gold fell 4% on Monday to close at $4,114.93, a seven-week low, after the ceasefire rejection lifted oil, inflation expectations and the 10-year yield above 5.2%. Wednesday's softer PCE sent gold to 4,215 within an hour, but new highs in long-term yields overnight sold the bounce back to the mid 4,100s. Gold pays no interest, so higher yields raise its holding cost. The Hormuz to oil to gold chain is set out in Lirunex's Hormuz, oil price and gold catalysts analysis, and gold's behaviour around recent Fed events in Lirunex's gold around FOMC market recap.
Price action: gold drifted lower from the 4,400 area and held 4,250 to 4,300 as a base until 26 September, then gapped lower at Monday's open and ran almost without pause to 4,110, a 4% one-day drop. Tuesday and Wednesday built a shallow base between 4,110 and 4,185, the PCE spike to 4,215 was rejected in the same session, and price sits at 4,165 in the middle of that base: a pause after a sharp bear leg rather than a reversal. A close above 4,215 would be the first sign the correction can extend toward 4,265; a failure to hold 4,140 would suggest the bear leg is not finished.
· Trend: gold trades at $4,165.18 (TradingView, 1 October 2026, 11:34am GMT+8), above Monday's 4,110 low.
· Resistance: 4,185, then 4,215 and 4,265.
· Support: 4,140, then 4,110 and 4,000.
· Watch: whether 4,140 holds into nonfarm payrolls September 2026. A strong jobs print could lift hike odds and weigh on gold; a soft one may extend the correction toward 4,215.
Chart discussion: traders may monitor whether 4,140 holds, and whether any rebound can close above 4,215, Wednesday's PCE spike high.
Mentor tip: gold usually tracks real yields more than headlines. If the 10-year keeps rising, rallies tend to be sold.
Sources: Trading Economics: Gold Price News | TradingKey: Gold Plunges to Seven-Week Low, Can $4,100 Hold? | FXStreet: Gold Price Forecast, XAU/USD Bears Eye $4,000 | Kitco News: Gold Caps Weekly Loss, 25 September 2026 | FXStreet: Gold Falls to Near $4,150 as Higher Treasury Yields, Oil Prices Outweigh Softer PCE
US500: Earnings Against 19-Year High Yields
US500 gave back 0.77% on Monday as the 10-year yield rose above 5.2% and closed Wednesday flat, ending a losing September about 1.7% below its August record of 7,816.70. Micron beat on Wednesday night with record revenue of $54.2 billion and guidance well above estimates, ISM lands tonight and nonfarm payrolls September 2026 Friday, so the earnings story and the bond market meet head-on.
Price action: the index rallied from the 17 September low near 7,554 to a top at 7,780 on 22 September, distributed under that high for two days, then pulled back to 7,655. The 26 September bounce reached 7,745 but failed below the 22 September peak, and later rebounds stopped at 7,725 and 7,720. The floor has been tested four times, most recently overnight when the softer-PCE rally gave way to a flush to 7,655. The chart is a 7,655 to 7,745 range with lower highs inside it: a fifth hold would keep it a consolidation near the record; a break would complete a short-term double top.
· Trend: US500 trades at 7,686.1 (TradingView, 1 October 2026, 11:34am GMT+8), about 1.7% below its record of 7,816.70.
· Resistance: 7,720, then 7,745 and 7,780.
· Support: 7,655, then 7,620 and 7,554.
· Watch: whether equities keep shrugging off 5.3% yields on earnings, or whether a strong payrolls print turns higher rates into a reason to sell.
Chart discussion: 7,655 has held four times since 24 September; a hold would keep the earnings story in charge, a break would hand it to the bond market.
Mentor tip: tech earnings can mask weakness elsewhere; last week utilities and real estate fell while the index rose.
Sources: Trading Economics: S&P 500 Index News | Portfolio Terminal: Stock Market Week in Review, 25 September 2026 | TradingKey: Wall Street Weekly Report, 21 to 25 September 2026 | Benzinga: Micron Delivers Q4 Double Beat, Sees Even Stronger Year Ahead
WTI Crude Oil: Strait of Hormuz Headlines and Wednesday's Inventories
WTI jumped on Monday after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal, then gave the whole spike back. Gulf crude exports recovered to 16.3 million barrels a day in September, the most since the conflict began, Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline, the US offered 40 million strategic reserve barrels, and Wednesday's EIA report showed a 922,000-barrel build against an expected draw. Iran has received Washington's response but will not soften its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where Kpler puts tanker traffic at 12.8 million barrels a day against 20 million pre-conflict. The wider political backdrop is covered in Lirunex's geopolitical events and market impact guide.
Price action: oil fell from 107 on 16 September to 92.4 on 23 September, recovered to 100.3, then made a lower high at 99.5 on 29 September. The Hormuz spike was sold immediately: price fell more than 4% on Tuesday, broke the 95.0 base and printed 91.4 on Wednesday, the lowest since early September. A bounce to 94.2 has already faded and 92.2 sits just above the low. The shape is a downtrend resuming after a two-week pause: a hold of 91.4 would keep a 91.4 to 94.2 range into nonfarm payrolls September 2026, while a break would open 90.0 and 88.5.
· Trend: WTI trades at 92.19 (TradingView, 1 October 2026, 11:34am GMT+8). Front-month futures quote about $2 lower than this CFD feed.
· Resistance: 94.2, then 97.0 and 99.5.
· Support: 91.4, then 90.0 and 88.5.
· Watch: a Hormuz reopening or further export recovery may push WTI through 91.4 toward 90.0; another attack headline could put 94.2 and 97.0 back in play.
Chart discussion: traders may monitor whether 91.4 holds or gives way toward 90.0, and whether 94.2 caps a second bounce.
Mentor tip: a $5 move in oil feeds straight into inflation expectations and Fed odds, so gold and EUR/USD react too.
Sources: Lirunex: Hormuz, Oil Price and Gold Political Catalysts, September 2026 | FXStreet: WTI Oil Extends Gains as Trump Rejects Hormuz Plan | Investing.com: Crude Oil WTI Futures Historical Data | Al Jazeera: Oil Prices Surge After Trump Rejects Iran's Hormuz Plan | FXStreet: WTI Set for Monthly Gain Amid US-Iran Stalemate | Rio Times: Oil Prices Fall as Middle East Crude Exports Recover
Key Takeaway
The most important event of the week is the nonfarm payrolls September 2026 report on Friday, the last major data point before the 27 to 28 October Fed meeting.
· Wednesday's softer PCE cut October hike odds to about 38% but could not stop yields making new highs; nonfarm payrolls September 2026 on Friday night decides whether the dollar's run continues.
· The key chain is oil to yields to the dollar. It fired on Monday, and even with oil back below 92 the yield leg has not reversed.
· What could change the outlook: a soft payrolls print or a confirmed Hormuz reopening, either of which would take pressure off yields and the dollar.
Explore Lirunex's Week Ahead article for the full calendar, then apply these levels with a clear trading mindset.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the nonfarm payrolls September 2026 report released?
Friday 2 October at 8:30am US Eastern, 8:30pm GMT+8, from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. It follows Wednesday's PCE inflation report and tonight's ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00pm GMT+8, with ADP and jobless claims as the supporting releases.
Why does US PCE inflation matter for markets?
PCE is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve targets. August's print of +0.3% headline and +0.2% core, both below consensus, cut October hike odds to about 38% from 51%. Softer inflation tends to weigh on the dollar and support gold, but long-term Treasury yields kept rising anyway, which limited both reactions.
How can nonfarm payrolls affect the US dollar?
Payrolls measure US job creation. A strong number suggests the economy can absorb higher rates, lifting rate expectations and the dollar. A weak number, below the roughly +84,000 consensus for nonfarm payrolls September 2026 (Barclays expects +50,000), may lower hike odds and soften the dollar. EUR/USD usually moves opposite to the dollar.
Why can economic data move gold?
Gold pays no interest, so when data raises expectations of higher rates and yields, the cost of holding gold rises and the price tends to fall. That is why gold dropped 4% on Monday, why Wednesday's softer PCE lifted it only briefly while yields kept rising, and why nonfarm payrolls September 2026 matters more to it than most headlines.
Are the support and resistance levels in this article trading signals?
No. They are reference levels read from the 1-hour TradingView charts on each card, for education only. No level guarantees a bounce or a break, and CFD trading carries a high risk of loss.
Sources & References
Sources: Lirunex: Weekly Analysis, Fed, BoE and BoJ, Sep 14 to 18 | Lirunex: Week Ahead, RBA Rate Decision and US Non Farm Payrolls, Sep 28 to Oct 2 | Lirunex: Trump and Xi Summit Market Impact on Gold, Forex and Oil | Lirunex: Hormuz, Oil Price and Gold Political Catalysts, September 2026 | Lirunex: Geopolitical Events and Market Impact | Lirunex: Market Recap, Gold Around FOMC News | Federal Reserve: FOMC Statement, 16 September 2026 | Federal Reserve: FOMC Meeting Calendar | US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Release Schedule | US Bureau of Economic Analysis: PCE Price Index | Institute for Supply Management: Report On Business | Trading Economics: Euro Area Currency News | Trading Economics: Gold Price News | Trading Economics: S&P 500 Index News | Kitco News: Gold Caps Weekly Loss, 25 September 2026 | FXStreet: EUR/USD Weekly Forecast, 25 September 2026 | FXStreet: Gold Price Forecast, XAU/USD Bears Eye $4,000 | FXStreet: WTI Oil Extends Gains as Trump Rejects Hormuz Plan | RoboForex: EUR/USD Forecast for 28 September to 2 October 2026 | TradingKey: Gold Plunges to Seven-Week Low, Can $4,100 Hold? | TradingKey: Wall Street Weekly Report, 21 to 25 September 2026 | TradingKey: Week Ahead, US PCE and September Nonfarm Payrolls | Portfolio Terminal: Stock Market Week in Review, 25 September 2026 | Kiplinger: This Week's Economic Calendar | Investing.com: Crude Oil WTI Futures Historical Data | Al Jazeera: Oil Prices Surge After Trump Rejects Iran's Hormuz Plan | centralbank.watch: Federal Reserve Rate Probability | NordFX: Market Pulse, 29 September 2026 | Lirunex: Treasury Yields Today Surge to Multi Decade Highs | Yahoo Finance: US Core PCE Inflation Rises 0.2% in August, Below Forecast | Fox Business: Private Sector Added 90,000 Jobs in September, ADP Says | Benzinga: Micron Delivers Q4 Double Beat | TheStreet: Stock Market Today, 30 September 2026 | FXStreet: Euro Weakens Below 1.1350 | FXStreet: Gold Falls to Near $4,150 | FXStreet: WTI Set for Monthly Gain Amid US-Iran Stalemate | Rio Times: Oil Prices Fall as Middle East Crude Exports Recover
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